According to a recent article published by AgWeb, this month’s acreage report may not matter much in terms of CBOT pricing. The article states that some analysts are calling for a brief bearish market, followed by a resurgance in commodity prices in late August 2019 through January 2020, when real acres and harvest data are returned. Even an FSA certified crop report, at this time, may not provide enough data for market prices to find their base and stabilize.
Some analysts are expecting reports that real acreages are somewhere near 9 million less acres than what was originally anticipated in January/February 2019. This would result in actual acres planted being near 83 or 84 million, which is quite a significant drop in planted acres due to inclimant weather patterns. This 10% drop may, in fact, be a realistic number based on unofficial reports.
Therefore, the obvious expectation would be to expect higher market prices later this year with moderate bearish factors to include the trade war with China and any external bearish factors from other major crop exporting nations.
For more information regarding the June 2019 USDA crop report, please see the following articles (Including a link to the actual USDA progress report):
https://www.agweb.com/article/analysts-say-the-2019-june-acreage-report-probably-wont-matter-much/
https://www.agweb.com/article/trade-war-truce-between-the-us-and-china/
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/prog2619.pdf
