Opinion

US Not Only Problem Area The USDA will release its updated US and world balance sheets next week, and on the margin, world grain production is expected to be lowered – and perhaps by a sizeable margin. The graphics below display updated vegetation health compared to last year, with crop areas isolated, and a lack […]

Long Term Bearish Cycle Ending? Wheat Price Change Last 12 Months It’s far too premature to be overly bullish, but changes due seem to be afoot, mostly due to changes in world currencies since late 2016. Much of our longer term bearish outlook since 2014 has been centered on weak currencies in major exporting countries,

MARKETS TO STAY NEUTRAL IN SPITE OF WEATHER ISSUES The growing season is ahead of us, and already there’s talk about late planting – which is likely as the two-week Central US forecast is rather wet. Our work suggests that planting dates, alone, don’t seem to affect yield potential, but it’s almost that time of

Is Rain Still Making Grain? Apr – May Rainfall: IL, IA, MO Early season crop conditions are, for the most part, at or above last year (select states have been reporting GD/EX for the last two weeks), but crops in the Eastern Midwest are not doing as well. Illinois’ crop is rated at 51% GD/EX,

WILL MARKETS RALLY? Whether soy complex prices rally further, or fall substantially, will be solely a function of South American weather through the end of February, perhaps even through the first half of March. And following last year’s production debacle in South America, the trade is well aware that, despite massive projected US soy supplies,